The Ice Cores- > 400K year history from Vostok
- > 800K year history from DomeC
- The climate is far from constant
- CO2, CH4 and Temperature are all correlated
- The data tells us far more than this
- What kind of changes are expected?
- Which came first, the gas or the heat?
- What are the periodic influences?
Data Smoothing- Data samples are intrinsically biased
- Recent samples represent short term averages
- Ancient samples represent long term averages
- Different variables have different sample periods
- Integrate samples over N years
- Matches short term data to long term data
- Matches temperature to CO2 and CH4
- Isolate long and short term periodicity
- Isolate long and short term dependency
Correlation Analysis- Simple correlation metric for time Δt from t
- Plus 1 when t+Δt changes in the same direction as t
- Minus 1 when t+Δt changes in the opposite direction
- Cross correlation identifies cause and effect
- Auto correlation identifies periodic components
- Use smoothing to select long or short term
- Variable window to match Δt to sample period
Cross Correlation Analysis- Can identify which of 2 variables changes first
- Temperature and CO2
- Temperature and CH4
- CO2 and CH4
- Smoothing is required to normalize variability
- Smoothing does not mask cause and effect
- Smoothing makes short term dependence apparent
DomeC Cross Correlation- DomeC has finer resolution CO2 measurements
- Shows apparent correlation of CO2 to future Temp
- Frequently misinterpreted as a causal dependency
- Also shows earlier correlation to opposite change
- This is an aliasing effect which really indicates
- CO2 increase -> Temp Decrease -> Temp Increase
- Indicates correlation across a period of unrelated change
- Indicates interference from a periodic effect
- When smoothing is applied
- Same results as Vostok data
Auto Correlation Analysis- Auto correlate temperature
- Apparent short term periodic behavior
- 200 year DomeC, 300 year Vostok
- Seems to be aliasing of seasonal variability
- Apply smoothing
- Unambiguous 22K, 41K period (Vostok and DomeC)
- Modulated peaks are evidence for other periodicity
- Related to variability in Earth's orbit and axis
- Related to sums and harmonics of this variability
- Common to temperature, CO2 and CH4
Combined Effects- The change between 96K and 41K ice ages
- Considered by some to be a mystery
- When the 41K, 96K and 500K forcing are combined
- One can cancel or enhance the other
- 96K is weaker, 500K is weakest, 41K is dominant
- The pattern is clearly an interference pattern
- We are entering a new age of 41K ice ages
- Evidenced by current weaker, but longer interglacial
- Currently approaching 500K peak
- 41K and 96K peaks are separated by about 30K years
- Stretching out the current interglacial
Is This Enough Forcing?- Some say that these effects are not strong enough
- The periodicity clearly aligns
- Magnitudes seem unexpected
- 96K is weak, but appears dominant recently
- Several 41K peaks have aligned with 96K minimums
- This mitigates the magnitude of the 41K effects
- There is a feedback effect at work
- Hemispheric asymmetry and ice amplification
Atmospheric Absorption- An objective review of atmospheric absorption is all that's required to disprove CO2 forcing
- The atmospheric absorption spectrum is known
- It has been measured and correlated to theory
- Water vapor contributes about 2/3, CO2 is 1/3
- Relatively transparent window from 8μ to 14μ
- Weak ozone absorption in the middle
- 7.5μ CH4 line on one side, 15μ CO2 line on the other, water vapor continuum absorption throughout
CO2 Absorption- 15u CO2 line absorption
- Highly saturated
- Energy limited, not concentration limited
- Double CO2
- Insignificant increase in width
- Primarily decreases mean distance before absorption
- Other bands are between 2u and 4.3u
- Narrower lines
- Significant H2O overlap
- Far less energy available to be absorbed
GHG Forcing - The Energy Cycle
- CO2 captures 15u surface energy
- Collisions transfer energy to other gas molecules
- Some energy gets back to the surface
- The cycle repeats
- Delays the release of surface energy
- GHG flux is a circulating flux
- Solar flux is an incident flux
Satellite Observations- 25 year history of detailed weather measurements
- 10 km surface resolution
- 3 hour time resolution
- 100% surface coverage
- Measurements include
- Surface temperature
- Cloud temperature
- Cloud coverage
- Reflectivities
Observed Variability- Global mean temperature varies significantly
- +/- 2.1˚ C seasonal variability
- +2.1˚ in June, -2.1˚ in December
- Sun is closest in early January, farthest in July
- Global mean temperature changes oppositely
- Indicates dramatic hemispheric asymmetry
- Unambiguously supports Milankovitch forcing
- Data calibration error around 2001-2002
- This has been misinterpreted as 'evidence' of warming
Hemispheric Differences- Southern Hemisphere
- 8˚K Degrees peak to peak variability
- 276˚K mean
- Northern Hemisphere
- 24˚K Degrees peak to peak variability
- 280˚K Mean
- Equatorial
- Small 6 month periodic variability
- Clearly illustrates 2001/2002 calibration error
Surface Reflectivity- Northern Hemisphere
- Higher mean
- More variability
- Greater range in surface ice
- More time spent during higher reflectivity
- More persistent ice coverage
- Consequences
- Sun closer in Northern summer -> cooler climate
- Sun closer in Southern summer -> warmer climate
Where is the Sun Now?- Sun is closest in early January
- 3.4% more incident energy than average
- Sun is farthest away in early July
- 3.4% less incident solar energy than average
- Nearly 7% total solar variability over a year
- Corresponds to a 4˚C difference in temperature
- Peak aphelion/perihelion differences are > 20%
Implications of Sun-Earth distance?- When Sun is closest during North winter (now)
- Warmer seasons, ice shrinks
- Ice shrinks, -> less reflected energy -> even warmer
- Positive feedback stops once minimum ice is reached
- When Sun is farther away during Northern winter
- Colder seasons, ice grows
- Ice grows -> more reflected energy -> even colder
- Southern hemisphere climate is more stable
- Equatorial climate is even more stable
Ice Amplification- A popular hypothesis is that CO2 forcing amplifies periodic influences of orbit and axis
- As evidenced by hemispheric differences, small changes in reflectivity have big consequences
- This is confirmed by energy balance modeling
- Surface ice and snow reflects a lot of energy
- Positive feedback reinforces this effect
- Models show that the ebb and flow of northern hemisphere surface snow and ice provides all of the required amplification
Ground Based Observations- Thermometers, tree rings, etc.
- Must be very careful here
- It's invalid to compare short term changes to changes in long term averages
- The most common mistake in climate alarmists arguments
- The 'Hockey Stick'
- Claims that temperatures are rising faster than ever
- Mauna Loa CO2 measurements
- Yes, CO2 is increasing, but ...
Mauna Loa CO2- Overlay Mauna Loa CO2 with global temperature
- Temperature decreases as CO2 increases
- Actually CO2 decreases as temperature increases
- Clear biological response
- More warmth, more plants, more CO2 is consumed
- As it cools, plants die, decomposing into CO2 and CH4
- Very fast acting
- Responds to temperature changes immediately
- Removing trend bias, the response is relatively linear
- Short term response
Biology- The CO2 and CH4 record reflects biology
- Short term
- More warmth -> more plants -> less CO2
- Less warmth -> more decomposition -> more CO2
- Long Term
- Plants require Sun energy + CO2
- Build up of CO2 required to support more biomass
- More biomass -> more decomposition -> more CO2/CH4
- More CO2 and Energy -> more biomass
- Animals slowly catch up, increasing CH4/CO2 ratio
Physics- Conservation of Energy
- Precludes runaway greenhouse effects
- Atmospheric absorption has no effect on the energy budget, i.e. Energy in == Energy out
- Clouds and greenhouse gases, warm surface
- Clouds trap far more energy than greenhouse gases
- Greenhouse gases redistribute atmospheric energy
- Greenhouse gas effects are primarily diurnal
Is CO2 Forcing Plausible?- Ice cores
- The recent rate of temperature change is exceeded in the data
- Past temperatures were warmer with far lower CO2 levels
- Temperature changes are correlated to orbit and axis variability
- There is no correlation of temperature to prior CO2 or CH4 levels
- Biology offers a complete explanation for CO2 and CH4
- Atmospheric absorption
- CO2 absorption is energy limited and not concentration limited
- Water vapor is a far larger contributor
- Mauna Loa
- Increasing temperature is associated with decreasing CO2
- Satellite
- Ebb and flow of ice provides all necessary positive feedback
- Hemispheric asymmetry amplifies seasonal differences
Politics- Unfortunately, politics has subverted the science
- Many want global warming to man made
- There are convenient scapegoats
- It's preached as the 'the right thing to do'
- The issue fits too well as a left/right conflict
- Guilt/greed
- Environment/business
- There's money to be made
Conclusion- Natural CO2 and CH4 are indicators of biology
- No forward feedback to temperature is in the record
- To Solve Global Warming
- All we need to do is wait
- In geologic terms, another ice age is eminent
- It's too bad that anthropogenic CO2 can't stop it
- Spending money on CO2 mitigation
- Absolute worst thing to do
- No climate change reversal will result
- Better spent on adapting to the inevitable